Friday, March 4, 2011
Man Denied Access to His Gold At Swiss Bank!!
'My inference is that the gold was not there,' Rickards told King World News. 'The bank had to scramble, go out and find it somewhere before they could make good delivery.'"
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Oooops!
Looks like this bank was "Spoofing Gold." The illegal, fraudulent practice of selling gold on paper, with the gold allegedly stored in bank's vault, when actually, bank does not buy the gold, instead invests it for own use. Usually, the gold buyer never asks for delivery and sells at some point in the future, which sends buyer his profit or loss, without ever having purchased any gold. The same practice is prevalent in the silver market.
Another shady practice is "Gold Leasing" where the bank takes some portion of the buyer's money and rents or leases gold from a broker for pennies, without taking possession, with a contract to purchase the gold or silver sometime in the future. Again, if the buyer requests delivery, the bank has to scramble and try to get a hold of the gold from the holder.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Housing prices to take another huge dive
Well the housing market did collapse, but the financial system did not collapse, yet.
Back then in 2006, I had no idea of the drastic, immoral and probably illegal methods the Fed would continence by the banks to avert such an event.
The Fed has printed Trillions of dollars to prop up the financial system. Wall st is inflated with government money used to purchase stocks. Bank's balance sheets are top heavy with funny money. The Fed and their cronies in the Obama administration have allowed the banks to hide the true, imploded value of their assets, especially the toxic mortgage backed securities.
I had said in my 2006 article that Joe and Mary Sixpack's ability to pay their mortgage payments were the key to the house of cards the fraudsters in Wall st and the banks had built and it still is.
However, with the drastic decline in the value of their homes, Joe and Mary have little to no incentive to pay their mortgages if the value of their homes is less than the mortgage amounts.
This is a problem I believe has been disquised and lied about. Ten years ago, the average homeowner had 50% equity in their home. At the height of the insanity, average equity had fallen to 30%.
As a result of the housing crash so far, home prices have fallen by 30% and more in certain hard hit areas. Tell me that only 25% of homeowners in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California are underwater. Perhaps 25% at most are Above water!
The Banksters have been successful in blocking investigations into the rampant fraud that underlined so much of the housing markets, on originations and now of the foreclosure side.
But now it is all coming to light with the investigations into who owns the mortgages and therefore has the legal right to foreclose the mortgage.
Here are a look at some of the possible scenarios:
Investors in securities may demand Put Backs, refunds of the investors money paid for the security based on their fraudulent representations on the underlying securities;
Homeowners suing to get their money back who have made years of mortgage payments to an entity that had no right to those payments
Successful home owner defenses against foreclosure of their homes because of the bank's inability to prove their ownership of mortgage
Title companies refusing to guarantee title to new lenders and borrowers
A collapse of the Trillion dollar securitization game.
Short to medium term, look for housing prices to nosedive as the market grinds to a halt and deflation in the broader financial markets takes over, despite another Trillion or so of QE2, ("Qualitative easing" by the Fed in 2011.)
However, look for gold and silver to sky rocket in the face of the resulting financial chaos. In fact, I expect that you will be able to buy a home with a 1,000 OZ bar of silver, during this period, just like you could in 1982!
Long term, look for ginormous inflation when the Fed figures out how to beat deflation. Then the complete collapse of the financial economy!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Chinese Citizens Urged to Buy Silver!
The Chinese government is now actively encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver. (It use to be illegal for them to do so) They recently unveiled silver bullion for investing (you can see the video here). The premise is that gold was 50 times more expensive than silver in 2007... but is now 70 times more expensive.
The government is promoting silver bullion as an investment for regular citizens. And remember, a bunch of Chinese students laughed at U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner this year when he claimed the dollar was safe. The Chinese know the value of real assets... real money like gold and silver.
What does this mean for silver prices? It's impossible to say. But here's a little math that interests me. According to the Silver Institute, demand for silver in 2008 (for industry, jewelry, and investing) was 832 million ounces. At today's price, that's an $11.5 billion market... or about 1/3 the capital available in China alone.
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My Notes:
Remember also that 20% of the existing silver supply is owned by one man, Warren Buffet!
Note also that 95% of all silver mined is consumed by industrial processes and a brand new use for silver was just announced by a start up medical company that could consume a major portion of the industrial silver supply!
The last time there was a run on silver was 1971-1980. Inflation soared, real estate doubled during the decade. A house bought in 1971 for $20,000 (yes, that is what the median priced house sold for!) was worth $42,000 in 1980.
$20,000 in silver purchased in 1971 was worth $770,000 in 1980, an increased of over 3,000 percent!
Only those holding gold and silver will come out on top after the next, inevitable inflation!
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Chinese Purchases Pushing Up Price of Gold!
By Daily Crux Editor Sean Goldsmith:
Investors in China, the world's second-largest gold consuming country, are stepping up purchases of physical gold as a hedge against economic disaster... "Gold demand in China in the first quarter rose to 114 tons, up 2 percent over the same period last year, solely boosted by an increase in jewelry demand," according to the latest report from the World Gold Council.
Chinese investors are taking a cue from their government, which increased its gold reserves nearly 76% to 1,054 tons since 2003, and will likely continue buying as the dollar continues its death spiral and the renminbi becomes more internationalized... "China's gold reserves may serve as backing for the yuan as Beijing is stepping up the promotion of its use overseas," said Albert Cheng, director of the World Gold Council's Far East Division.
Note: China is rightly scared to death that its holdings of US Bonds will disintegrate in value as inflation takes hold in the US. The prospect for which is HUGE, considering the Trillions of dollars in bonds the Govt and the Fed have issued to fight the deflation in this country.
They are buying gold as protection against inflation and the possible devaluation of the US dollar.
This is pushing up the price of gold and my favorite, silver. Over recent months, gold has gone from about $895 to $985, a nice move. Silver on the other hand has gone from $10 to $15 an increase of 50%. For more info on why I feel silver is the better investment, click here: http://silverpros.blogspot.com/2008/11/why-silver.html for more information
on "why Silver" including a video by Robert Kiyosaki on Investing in Silver.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
What Would Happen if Your Life Insurance Carrier Collapsed?
That is Not the bad news.
The bad news is that much of the remaining capital the companies report are of suspect valuation, since mortgage backed securities, especially commercial mortgage backed securities, CMBS, are about to implode.
Recently, a major office building in Boston was sold for 50% of its “value.” I doubt that the securities that mortgage supported reflected the true value of the property, do you? How much of it are owned by insurance companies? I don't know.
Or how about the impending blow up of one of the biggest Mall owners in the world, in the next 30 days, think that will have an impact on the assets of the insurance companies? (See post, The Next Big Bang)
Update! General Growth Properties, the company hinted at above, today, April 16, declared bankruptcy! The stock market gained over 100 Points!
With 10% of life insurers capital invested in commercial real estate, it is estimated that a decline in value of the real estate of 25% would wipe out 1/2 of the insurers nominal capital, including of course the hidden losses mentioned above.
This would crush their stock and may incite shut downs of many companies by their State Legislatures.
Estimates I am seeing are that about 30% of all commercial mortgages will fail!
Did you ever think what would happen if your life insurance company collapsed, went out of business?
On paper, you would be covered for $100,000 in life claims. On paper.
In reality, most life insurance policies are backed by a State Insurance Guarantee.
How many States are currently facing bankruptcy? About 40 out of the 50.
But even if your family did receive the full $100,000, out of the $500,000 you were paying for with the other $400,000 blowing away with the debris from the insurance company itself; along with your premiums you paid for it over the years, what then?
Take out $10,000 for your burial, $20,000 for final hospital, medical and other bills and your family will have between $30-$50,000 to ‘Maintain Their Lifestyle.”
Obviously, that ain’t gonna help!
What to do?
I am assuming you have a whole life policy with cash value.
Remember how much equity you had in your house back in 2006! How much do you have now?
The same with the cash equity in your insurance policy. I would borrow out as much of the cash value as possible, before it evaporates like your home equity and invest it in precious metals, gold and especially silver.
If you should die in the near future, your family’s insurance proceeds would be lessened by the amount of the loan, but would still total the face value, including your investment in precious metals.
We are predicting that the precious metals are going to go on the greatest Bull Run in the history of the world, once the economy is “saved” by devaluing our currency, as that is the only way the gigantic debts we owe can ever be repaid.
There is precedence for such a move. In the ancient world, Emperors would either decrease the size of their coins or in Rome, dilute the gold or silver with other, less valuable fillers, while proclaiming the coins were worth the same amount of money.
In the First Great Depression, Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold, to which the value of the dollar was pegged, from $20 Oz to $35 Oz. This meant that what it used to take $20 to buy now took $35 or 57% more.
Looked at another way, the supply of money was increased by 57%, enough to pay off the huge debts which of course remained fixed in value; albeit with cheaper dollars. This is China's big fear.
There is simply not enough money in the world to pay off the Trillions of dollars in debts and unfunded mandates like medicare and social security facing the US.
If the dollar is devalued by only 10%, it is estimated that gold will go to over $5,000 per ounce and silver over $100. It is also likely that the devaluation will have to be even greater, maybe 20% which would mean gold at $10,000 Oz. Of course we would no longer call it a "dollar." OMG! They are already with the "new dollar" called the Amero, after the Euro; but that is a different discussion.
For reasons discussed in other posts on this blog, I believe that silver will outperform gold, real estate, and the stock market when the economy is re-flated.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
There is a Silver Lining in All o f This!
Consumer Spending?
A key measure of consumer sentiment fell more than expected in February, to the lowest level since its 1967 inception, as Americans remained wary of spending amid the weak economy and rising unemployment.
The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 25 in February from a revised reading of 37.4 in January. The index has been touching historic lows since September. Economists had been expecting a reading of 35!
Consumer sentiment is a really vital statistic because it is a barometer of future spending which represents 70% of Gross Economic activity in this country.
Housing market?
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that prices sank a record 18.2% during the last three months of 2008, compared with the same period in 2007.
National home prices have dropped 26.7% since they peaked during the second quarter of 2006.
“One bright note is that the sector that led the economy into this morass is about to turn the corner, perhaps as soon as this summer, and will start to lead us out,” Dr Scott Anderson, Chief Economist, said in the report released by Wells Fargo Friday.
NOT!!
There is nothing in the data suggesting a turn around any time soon.
My forecast as you know is that home prices will plummet to pre-bubblle levels, reflecting the realities of the current economic reality.
On the other hand, silver will move up as house prices move down until you will be able to buy a house with 1,000 oz or less of silver! Today, with silver at $14 oz, it would take about 14,000 oz. Tomorrow, with silver at say, $100 oz and houses at $100,000, that would do it!
The last time this happened was in the early 80's with silver at $50 and homes at $50,000, so it is not as far fetched as it sounds. It illustrates how way out of line home priced got at the peak of the boom when it took almost 40,000 oz of silver!
Go to http://silverpros.blogspot.com/2008/11/why-silver.html for more information
on "why Silver" including a video by Robert Kiyosaki on Investing in Silver.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Latest Housing News
The drying up of funds for real estate lending combined with new lending regulations that eliminate half of the people who could borrow before, in addition to the layoffs and the growing number of people "sending the keys to the bank" because they are under water, will combine to drive housing prices lower than anyone dared project, I believe.
Thinking of buying real estate? Put the money you were planning to use for the purchase (30% down required!), into silver. The overall economy is in a deflation now, with the prices of everything going down, including gold and silver. However, when the economy turns, inflation will be back with a vengeance. This situation is analagous to 1971 when the average home sold for $20,000. Let's see what would happen if Mary bought a home for $20,000 and John put $20,000 in silver. The economy was bad for several years in the 70'S but when the economy turned, prices shot up. Mary's home jumped to $40,000 in 1980, but John's $20,000 investment in silver was worth over $770,000 in 1980!
The stage is set for a repeat performance. When the economy turns, real estate appreciation will be hampered by the huge inventory of unsold homes, restrictive lending standards that will eliminate half of the usual buyers, and sky high interest rates. Silver will have no such retardants holding it back. As it is, silver is more scarce now than in 1980, since 95% of all silver mined is consumed by industrial uses. Also, Warren Buffet has recently bought 20% of All the silver in the World! Think he knows something that we don't?
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why is the Price of Silver Down?
Look at oil, down 73%, wheat, 64%, nickel, 73% they all got hit badly. In the rush to liquidate positions to honor redemptions or to raise capital, the baby was thrown out with the bath water. Then, deflation set in and depressed everything further.
Although silver is down 45%, one thing to keep in mind is that you should not just look at silver's price in US dollars. By comparing it to other assets, the Dow, oil, and certainly real estate, you see that silver has not lost much. As far as the future, here is what David Martin, one of the most astute and successful precious metal experts has to say about future silver pricing:
"I believe that the supply of silver is so small relative to the population base that it won't take much new buying to carry silver far, far higher. You have to remember that silver hit $50 an ounce in 1980 and there was roughly four times more silver available above ground than now. Also, the money supply was about one-seventh the size that it is now. So if you use those facts--that the silver supply, instead of being 2 billion ounces of fine bullion, is less than 500,000 ounces and that the money supply, M1, is about six or seven times greater--that shows you a high, high potential that silver could certainly go up."
Anyway, you know that to be a successful investor, you must buy when the price is low if you expect to be able to sell when it is high, the exact opposite of what the public does. Now is the time to start building your silver nest egg at very reasonable prices before they skyrocket. (After all the money supply has DOUBLED since last summer! Although locked securely in bank vaults right now, you know that money will come out like a Tsunami at some point and send inflation and silver prices through the roof!)
You can check out this site to get started accumulating silver. It is where I got started in a small way buying silver coins: http://SilverSnowball.com/964 The coins are in such short supply that there are few places you can buy small quantities of them. Let me know if you want to buy larger quantities. Bill Young 646-961-3818
Monday, December 15, 2008
Deflation Is HERE!
Just in the third quarter alone, U.S. households lost:
$647 billion in real estate
$922 billion in stocks
$523 billion in mutual funds
$653 billion in life insurance and pension fund reserves
$128 billion in private business interests.
Total destruction of household wealth in the third quarter: $2.8 trillion, the worst in recorded history.
That's 4X more than the government's entire $700 billion bailout package (TARP).
Total destruction of household wealth in the last year: $7.2 trillion or over TEN times more than the $700 billion TARP package.
You see how feeble and impotent the government's actions have been in the face of Massive deflationary pressures that are accelerating as time goes on.
We don't know how long or how deep the Deflation will be, but it is not a joke to say the un-sayable, The Greatest Depression may be around the corner. The only thing that is certain is that the cure is very likely to be Hyperinflation to get the economy moving again.
This sequence of events, deep deflation followed by hyperinflation is the stuff that great fortunes are made of. Look at the prices of gold and silver, they, like all the other assets are down considerably, 30 and 40% respectively and may go down lower as they are also the subject of massive market manipulation by several major banks.
These precious metals will always maintain their intrinsic value, no matter how low their price goes, as history proves.
This makes the vital task of spotting assets with good fundamentals that have been beaten down in the general deflation, easy. These are the ones that are a real buy now, and should be purchased even as they go lower under the sagging weight of the deflation and possible manipulation, as they will rebound into the stratosphere once the devaluation of the currency or inflation kicks into high gear.
In order for the world's debt to be repaid, the dollar will have to be skinned alive, devalued to the tune of 5 or even 10 new dollars for every one of the present ones.
This means that gold and silver will then sell for 5-10 times what they are selling for now!
I know that many of my clients are regular, middle class folk, who do not have the wherewithal to pump 10's of thousands of dollars into precious metals, as much as they should or would like to.
The easiest, cheapest way to accumulate silver, the more affordable of the two metals is to buy silver coins, American Silver Eagles, Canadian Silver Maple Leafs.
We have joined an innovative system that rewards you, in silver for referrals you make who purchase silver coins in the ratio of a free coin to you for every 2 purchased by your referrals. Check them out here: http://SilverSnowball.com/964
This is an inexpensive way to start accumulating silver and who knows, if you know a lot of people, it could put a lot of free silver in your pocket!
Check it out: http://SilverSnowball.com/964
Friday, December 5, 2008
Stag/Deflation?
We are probably hip deep in StagDeflation right now. Unemployment is ballooning (533,000 lost jobs last month, November, 2008) because business is stagnant due to lack of demand. Imported cars are piling up on the docks because dealers will not accept them because no one is buying them.
High unemployment leads to less demand, which leads to more unemployment, which leads to less demand...You see the problem.
In deflation, the value of everything goes down due to lack of demand. Look at oil prices, which are poised to go below $40/barrel in the next few days. Look at gold and silver, down approx 30 and 40%, respectively in the last 6 months.
The value of the stock market has plummeted 40% this year as well.
Of course the banks and financial institutions are being battered by the drop in their capital due to the loss of value of their reserves, mainly their investments in real estate derivatives. This situation is forcing them to curtail lending which again hits demand, denying credit to businesses and individuals, depressing consumption further.
The only thing going up in this environment is the lowly dollar, since the supply i8s contracting, the very opposite of what happens in an inflation.
During this period of Stagflation and collapse of the banks and financial institutions, your best money strategy is to get out of your investments and into cash, since "things" are losing value and dollars are gaining value.
You will have a great opportunity to buy back your financial assets and real estate at the bottom of the StagDeflation cycle at pennies on the dollar!
However, with banks failing on a weekly basis and hundreds of them in danger of collapse, you want to keep your money in Treasury Only money market funds. FDIC insurance is for suckers! The fund does not begin to have anything approaching enough capital to guarantee anything like the amount of losses they are likely to face if even a fraction of the banks on the Bad list fail.
Treasury only money market funds can act as both business and personal checking accounts as well as money market funds. Your money cannot be safer. The government has Never defaulted on Treasuries, not in the Civil War, not in the First Depression, not in WW2.
Now, the answer to Deflation, is Inflation, printing money and pumping it into the economy, as the government is doing to recapitalize the banks as well as to jump start consumer spending. There is usually a lag of about a year between the growth of the money supply and the onset of inflationary prices.
As gold and silver prices will rocket upward as inflation sets in and their prices are depressed now, you will want to convert some of those Fat dollars to gold and silver now. You have about a year before their prices will start excellerating at which time the dollar will drop like a stone.
Recommendation: Sell deflating financial investments, real estate. Hoard cash, invest 20% in gold, silver: http://SilverSnowball.com/964
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Why Silver?
A Must Read Special Report by Personal Financial Consultant Bill Young
The astronomical costs of the Wall St. Bailout can only be met by massive borrowing and unlimited printing of more money by the Federal Reserve Bank.
At this moment, the total costs of “saving” the economy, including the bailout of Fannie and Freddie, AIG and the latest $850 Billion Wall St package, (Senate version) is over $1.29 Trillion and counting!
There are literally Trillions more in damaged assets that may have to be rescued by the Federal Government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, the failed mortgage giants rescued by the Feds have another $1.5 Trillion dollars in shaky mortgages that may need bailing out.
There will be more, starting with the FDIC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, whose job it is to insure depositors bank accounts. It was rumored the FDIC already needed an infusion of $150 Billion more just to be able to back stop the total of insured bank deposits up to $100,000.
They have now raised the insured ceiling from $100,000 per depositor to $250,000. Does this mean they will now need an extra $225 Billion to insure the higher limits?
The only way debts of this magnitude have been handled throughout history is by starting a war against the creditor or to devalue the currency.
Although some may savor the vision of a Main St vs Wall St Civil War, the more likely choice is a massive devaluation of the currency.
Devaluation can be accomplished by Executive Order as President Roosevelt did in 1934. He devalued the dollar by lowering its value against gold, raising the price of gold from 20 dollars per ounce to 35 dollars per ounce.
The “modern,” stealth way of devaluing the money is simply to print more of it! Already, some measures of money supply, including M-3, the ultimate source of devaluation of a currency and inflation in the economy; show money growing at an annual rate of more than 14%.
And in the last two weeks, M3 has exploded! It is now running at an annualized growth rate of over 200%, something usually seen during war time or in 3rd world country economies!
A realistic illustration of dollar devaluation is the cost of a Hot Dog at Nathan’s of Coney Island.
In the 1950’s, their flagship Hot Dog cost .10 each. Now they cost $4!
In other words, today’s $4 now buys you .10 worth of value, in 1950 dollars.
More recently, in 1971, you could buy an ounce of silver for $1. Now it takes about $12 to buy an ounce of raw silver. So, it takes $12 today to buy what you could have bought for $1 in 1971.
This is normally looked at as price inflation, but you can easily see that it is also devaluation of the dollar.
Don’t expect to find this information in any official government report. Most of the statistics coming out of Washington these days are lies, including whether we are in a recession, we are; the Official Unemployment Rate and , the Official rate of Inflation which does not count the cost of food or fuel!
In fact, the government stopped reporting M3 money growth a few years ago! They do not want you to know the shocking truth of how quickly your money is becoming worthless.
M3 is now maintained privately, by think tanks or non-profit institutions.
That kind of monetary growth can be wildly inflationary.
How do you protect the value of your savings, your money and even position yourself to profit from the collapse of the dollar?
The best way is to buy hard assets whose value inflates as the economy inflates, as the value of the dollar deflates, especially gold and silver.
See what Robert Kiyosaki the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad has to say about this in the video, below.
Although many people recommend gold, silver has some intriguing facts working for it. Right now, in the short run, there is an historic imbalance between the price of gold and silver. Historically, it took 15 oz silver to buy 1 ounce of gold, but the price of gold has gone up so quickly, silver has fallen behind. It now takes 50 oz of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold! Silver will rise rapidly in price to restore the historical price relationship to gold. The other factor is a permanent and important consideration. Silver is both hoarded and consumed!
Silver is used in the production of products too numerous to report here. It even has medicinal qualities, such as being anti bacterial that creats demand for silver in a growing number of medicinal products. Electronic devices are also big users of silver. This means that more has to be mined every year to supply this demand. Right now, there is a 10 year supply of silver in the world, period.
More will be mined, of course, but as demand increases because of the explosive growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, the upward price pressures will increase over time, althought there will be ups and downs as supply and demand ebb and flow.
One of the gold dealers I mentioned earlier, Mr. Heller, says he thinks silver has even more upside potential than gold. He’s not alone. And the investor rush into silver has just been astonishing , including Warren Buffet, (yes, The Warren Buffet), he has bought up 1/5 (20%) of the world’s supply of silver! Think he knows something that we don’t?
“The shortage of physical silver is also severe. Silver coins used to trade very near the spot price of silver. But no longer. Now, a silver coin can carry a premium of $1 to $3 per ounce.” Weiss Research
Another factor is that the lower price of silver means that it is accessible to more people. More regular, middle class people can afford to buy silver at $12/ounce than can buy gold at $900, ounce.
Watch what Robert Kiyosaki has to say about Silver and Gold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOKn7tiUMyc
Whichever you decide, most experts advise you to put approximately 20% of your portfolio in either gold or silver.
Update! The Financial Crisis is Now Morphing Into a Global Recession And Perhaps Deflation!
The global financial panic has caused a “Flight to Quality.”
Spooked by the collapse of every investment bank on Wall st. as well as the 2 largest bank failures in US history, everyone is dumping their stocks, even the supposedly, “Sophisticated Investors” in hedge funds.
As a result, mutual funds and hedge funds have had to sell everything, even gold and gold stocks to answer margin calls or to handle the redemption requests from investors who’s requests to get out have been stalled by the “small print” in fund prospectuses.
Watch the last quarter of this year. November 14, is the cut off date for investors wanting to get their money out of hedge funds. This forced, firesale selling will devastate the stock market. I predict the Dow will dip under 6,000 in the resulting carnage!
It is estimated that over 300 hedge funds will be forced to close as a result of these withdrawals.
The “Real” economy, where goods and services are bought and sold, is now unraveling under the double blows of tightened credit and falling demand.
“We’re entering a really fierce global recession,” Mr. Rogoff, a Harvard Professor said. “A significant financial crisis has been allowed to morph into a full-fledged global panic. It’s a very dangerous situation. The danger is that instead of having a few bad years, we’ll have another lost decade, like Japan.”
Consumer demand is off, not surprisingly, as home prices plummet and now stocks too and because of that, prices are falling. The name for that unusual phenomenon is Deflation, a very nasty word to economists.
It portends a downward spiral of weak demand forcing prices down, which leads to business slowdowns and layoffs which lead to even lower demand, causing even more deflation and so on. To put it simply, Defaults lead to Deflation, Deflation leads to Defaults!
This can be a tough situation to combat. The answer to deflation is inflation, but the Fed has used up most of its Atomic firepower; lower interest rates. Its benchmark, Feds Funds rate, is now down to 1%, from a high of 5.25% just last year ago.
The poster child for deflation, besides our own Great Depression, is Japan’s “Lost Decade” when deflation ravaged their country for 10 years! Their stock market lost 60%, their real estate market, 70%! Even reducing their interest rate to zero for several years did not help, there simply was no need for credit, since so many the businesses were shut down.
Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression as well as Japan’s Lost Decade. His prescription will be to flood the market with dollars until the vehicle begins to move again, unleashing wild inflation.
Although, the interest rate spigot will soon be tapped out, he can still issue US Treasury Bonds, the sale of which will generate a Tsunami of Dollars!
The Canary in the Mine!
Just as miners used a caged canary down in the mines to warn of impending danger, you should keep an eye on the yields of the US Treasury Bonds!
“Signs of strain in the US Treasury market are already there, despite the current low yields. (Cost of “default insurance” on Treasuries has increased by 2500% in a year!)The culprit is the huge and rising government debt. Add up all the guarantees and the bailout loans and you have the US private debt to GDP ratio at levels never seen before – close to 300%, according to Steve Keen, the Australian economist – the question is surely whether the whole debt pyramid can avoid crashing down via a violent and uncontrollable chain of defaults, dragging the government bond market down with it!”
How can investors take cover if concerns over government solvency spread? There are tactics that can help, such as hedges and bond futures, but if push came to shove:
A US debt default (on Treasury Bonds) would have cataclysmic consequences for the financial economy, bankrupting the entire system.
"So the ultimate safe haven is in the precious metals, which would rapidly regain monetary status in such a scenario.” Paul Amery, European Editor of IndexUniverse
Update, 11-18-08
Today we turn our attention to commodities including gold and silver, which have been badly battered by the global financial crisis, deleveraging and a worsening economic outlook, with commodity indices having lost 50% of their value since the July peak!
After a brief rally in autumn, gold now trades between $700-750, about 28% below the March peak. Slowing inflation (growing deflation)and the U.S. dollar’s uptrend sapped support for gold as a store of value despite the possible inflationary consequences of massive fiscal expansion and monetary policy easing to counteract the economic and financial effects of the global credit crisis. Though gold tends to be less sensitive to a global economic slowdown than industrial metals or energy commodities, deflation is a clear and present danger for gold prices. Even physical demand for gold – mostly for decorative use – looks likely to weaken alongside consumer confidence.
The coming global recession, a strong dollar and forced fund liquidations in the medium-term will keep gold and silver prices under pressure until late 2009.
RGB Monitor, 11-19-08
“Silver has been particularly hard hit by the drastic drop in demand in the last few months because of its use in so many industrial processes, which have been in sharp decline, falling about 40% from July to October, 2008”
“I agree that the U.S. government can't create trillions of dollars out of thin air without making all the existing dollars worth less. That is the definition of inflation. I think the safest place to protect your cash is in precious metals…” Matt Badiali, The Commodity Investor
Bottom line, gold and silver prices are being beaten down by the worldwide slump in demand occasioned by the growing recession. But since the cure for deflation is inflation, the Decline in the value of the dollar, I am recommending the purchase of gold and silver aggressively to take advantage of the lull before the storm!
The Declining Dollar
The purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has steadily declined over time and is expected to continue to do so. Precious metals can often provide a “hedge against inflation” capability. For example, between 1971 and 1981, the U.S. dollar lost more than half its value, while silver prices rose nearly five times.
Options for investing in silver:
Exchange - Traded Funds (ETFs)
Advantages:
For investors who seek exposure to the physical silver market, but have no desire to possess the metal or pay direct insurance, assay, and storage costs, ETFs offer an alternative. They have major exchange listings and trade like equities. Investors can buy shares in a trust that owns the silver bullion.
Disadvantages:
Because the ETFs are created to reflect the price of the silver, the market price can be as unpredictable as the price of silver on any given trading day.
Silver Bullion Bars of Approved Refiners
Advantages:
Usually the least expensive...Convertible into cash...Internationally negotiable...Price is widely quoted.
Disadvantages:
Must be stored securely...Possible need for assay at time of sale...Yields no interest.
Silver Mining Stocks
Advantages:
Offers capital appreciation opportunities...Dependent on the company's management and operating strength...May yield a dividend.
Disadvantages:
May require greater investment than small physical bullion purchases...Requires knowledge of equity market.
Silver Mutual Funds
Advantages:
Many mutual funds offer investment programs in silver and precious metals...Diversified holdings among dozens of companies.
Disadvantages:
May require greater investment than small physical bullion purchases...Requires knowledge of equity market.
Silver Bullion Coins
Advantages:
Relatively inexpensive, some less than US$10.00...Small and easy to store...Instant convertibility into cash...Easy to transport...Internationally negotiable...Prices quoted widely.
Disadvantages:
Must be stored securely...Yields no interest...Premium over bullion bar prices. They will cost more and sell for more than bars.
Silver Medallions
Advantages:
Prices can range from least expensive to most expensive...Small and easy to store...Easy to transport.
Disadvantages:
Similar to coins, but not always easily convertible to cash unless they bear the mark of a reputable refiner.
Silver Certificates or Storage Accounts
Advantages:
High liquidity...But at competitive prices...No storage risk...No sales tax...Prices widely quoted...Invest by dollar amount.
Disadvantages:
Several days' delay in delivery of silver...Silver not in physical possession of owner.
Silver Accumulation Plans
Advantages:
Invest as little as $100...Discounted commission rates...Highly liquid...No sales tax...Offers dollar cost averaging...No storage fees.
Disadvantages:
Silver not in physical possession of owner.
Silver Futures Contracts
Advantages:
Speculative appeal...Leverage reduces capital tie-up...Liquidity...Contracts widely quoted...No storage risk.
Disadvantages:
Many trading limitations...High risk factors...Unlimited loss potential...Requires market expertise.
Silver Options
Advantages:
Speculative appeal...Leverage reduces capital tie-up...No storage risk...clearly defined risk.
Disadvantages:
Trading limitations...Highest risk...Less negotiable and less liquid...Investor must be willing to sustain the loss of their entire investment in a commodity option...High degree of knowledge required.
So you see, silver coins are the easiest and least complicated ways to invest in silver. The least expensive silver coins you can buy are bullion coins. These have no monetary or collectible value, so you are only paying for the silver content with no additional premiums.
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